Solo mining luck calculator
This is a lottery with an entry fee of electricity. Solo mining with a Bitaxe or similar device doesn’t pay out steadily — it pays out once, maybe, after years of nothing. Enter your hardware below to see your real odds, not a fantasy sats/day number.
Why odds differ between calculators
Network hashrate isn’t something anyone measures directly — it’s inferred from how quickly recent blocks were found, since faster blocks imply more total computing power working on them. Different tools infer it differently (a shorter or longer trailing window, a different smoothing method), so the same device hashrate can produce visibly different odds on different sites even when both are computed correctly. If our number doesn’t match another calculator’s, that’s almost always why — it’s the same real math applied to a different snapshot of the same noisy underlying estimate, not one of us being wrong.
This calculator uses mempool.space’s /api/v1/mining/hashrate/3d endpoint — its own 3-day trailing average of block-time-implied hashrate — refreshed every 10 minutes. Because it’s a short trailing average reacting to real, somewhat random block timing, this figure commonly moves several percent day to day even with no real change in network conditions.
86 TH/s device found 634,375,000 sats against 1 in 16,166 daily odds — via solo.ckpool.
Questions
How likely is a Bitaxe Gamma 601 to find a block?
At current network hashrate, a 1.2 TH/s Bitaxe Gamma 601 has odds of 1 in 5,285,017 per day of finding a Bitcoin block on its own — expected once every 14,470 years. It's a real, nonzero chance, not a rounding error, but it's a lottery: most solo miners never find a block, and the ones who do are the stories you hear about.
Is solo mining with a Bitaxe or small ASIC ever worth it?
Not as an income strategy — the expected value is real but arrives, if ever, as one lump sum after a long unpredictable wait, not steady earnings. People solo mine for the lottery-ticket upside, to support network decentralization, or to run their own node/pool infrastructure. For steady (if small and variable) income, pool mining is the honest choice — this calculator exists specifically to keep those two different things from being confused.
Do more devices improve my solo mining odds?
Yes, linearly — running 4 identical devices at once gives you 4× the combined hashrate and therefore 4× the daily odds of 1 device, all else equal. It does not change the fundamental lottery-not-income nature of solo mining; it just buys more tickets.