Canaan Avalon Q solo mining odds
The Avalon Q is an industrial-scale device built for pooled mining — solo mining it is a curiosity, not a realistic plan. The odds below are computed exactly for context, the same honest math as every device on this site.
The Canaan Avalon Q is built for pooled mining, not solo — at this hashrate solo mining is a curiosity, not a realistic strategy. The odds below are shown for context, computed exactly, not as a suggestion.
A win pays the full block subsidy plus fees. Pooled mining pays the same expected value in steady sats instead of one lump sum.
Questions
How likely is a Canaan Avalon Q to find a Bitcoin block?
At 90 TH/s against 983.63 EH/s of current network hashrate, the 90 TH/s bin has odds of 1 in 75,898 per day — expected once every 208 years. It's a real, nonzero chance, not a rounding error, but most solo miners never find a block.
What does winning actually pay?
The full block subsidy plus average transaction fees — currently 3.1535 BTC, worth about $267,115. It's paid in one lump sum on the block you find, not spread out.
Is solo mining ever worth it?
Not as an income strategy — the expected value is real but arrives, if ever, as one lump sum after a long unpredictable wait, not steady earnings. People solo mine for the lottery-ticket upside, to support network decentralization, or to run their own node/pool infrastructure. Pooled mining pays the same expected value in steady sats instead.
Do more devices improve the odds?
Yes, linearly — running 4 identical Avalon Q units at once gives 4× the combined hashrate and therefore 4× the daily odds of 1 unit, all else equal. Use the device-count field in the solo calculator to model a real multi-device setup.