Bitmain Antminer S21 solo mining odds
The Antminer S21 is an industrial-scale device built for pooled mining — solo mining it is a curiosity, not a realistic plan. The odds below are computed exactly for context, the same honest math as every device on this site.
The Bitmain Antminer S21 is built for pooled mining, not solo — at this hashrate solo mining is a curiosity, not a realistic strategy. The odds below are shown for context, computed exactly, not as a suggestion.
A win pays the full block subsidy plus fees. Pooled mining pays the same expected value in steady sats instead of one lump sum.
Questions
How likely is a Bitmain Antminer S21 to find a Bitcoin block?
At 151 TH/s against 922.90 EH/s of current network hashrate, the 151 TH/s bin has odds of 1 in 42,444 per day — expected once every 116 years. It's a real, nonzero chance, not a rounding error, but most solo miners never find a block.
What does winning actually pay?
The full block subsidy plus average transaction fees — currently 3.1404 BTC, worth about $199,166. It's paid in one lump sum on the block you find, not spread out.
Is solo mining ever worth it?
Not as an income strategy — the expected value is real but arrives, if ever, as one lump sum after a long unpredictable wait, not steady earnings. People solo mine for the lottery-ticket upside, to support network decentralization, or to run their own node/pool infrastructure. Pooled mining pays the same expected value in steady sats instead.
Do more devices improve the odds?
Yes, linearly — running 4 identical Antminer S21 units at once gives 4× the combined hashrate and therefore 4× the daily odds of 1 unit, all else equal. Use the device-count field in the solo calculator to model a real multi-device setup.