Bitaxe Ultra solo mining odds
This is a lottery with an entry fee of electricity. The Ultra doesn't pay out steadily — it pays out once, maybe, after a long unpredictable wait. Below are the real odds against live network hashrate, not a fantasy number.
Solo mining is the whole point of a device like the Ultra — small enough that pooled mining barely pays out, but every block search is still a real, honest lottery ticket.
A win pays the full block subsidy plus fees. Pooled mining pays the same expected value in steady sats instead of one lump sum.
Questions
How likely is a Bitaxe Ultra to find a Bitcoin block?
At 0.5 TH/s against 922.90 EH/s of current network hashrate, the 0.5 TH/s bin has odds of 1 in 12,818,045 per day — expected once every 35,094 years. It's a real, nonzero chance, not a rounding error, but most solo miners never find a block.
What does winning actually pay?
The full block subsidy plus average transaction fees — currently 3.1404 BTC, worth about $199,166. It's paid in one lump sum on the block you find, not spread out.
Is solo mining ever worth it?
Not as an income strategy — the expected value is real but arrives, if ever, as one lump sum after a long unpredictable wait, not steady earnings. People solo mine for the lottery-ticket upside, to support network decentralization, or to run their own node/pool infrastructure. Pooled mining pays the same expected value in steady sats instead.
Do more devices improve the odds?
Yes, linearly — running 4 identical Ultra units at once gives 4× the combined hashrate and therefore 4× the daily odds of 1 unit, all else equal. Use the device-count field in the solo calculator to model a real multi-device setup.